July 24, 2026 · Real-yield-led selloff with positive bear-flattening, elevated supply pressure and rising long-duration volatility
US Treasury Weekly Assessment — Week Ending July 24, 2026
The Treasury market ended the week in a real-yield-led selloff and modest positive bear-flattening. The base case is for volatile, supply-sensitive trading in which the front and intermediate sectors remain relatively vulnerable as a large July 27–29 auction calendar is absorbed. Mixed auction demand, elevated long-duration volatility, and firmer claims support that assessment, while unchanged supplied model forward-rate and term-premium measures limit attribution to a broad shift in expected policy or duration compensation.