Reports retained with their original market and source data cutoffs.
September 11, 2026 · Front-end-led bearish repricing with bear flattening, firm inflation pressure, and strong coupon-auction absorption
The Treasury market repriced sharply lower in price, led by the front end: two-year, five-year, ten-year, twenty-year and thirty-year yields rose 26 bp, 24 bp, 18 bp, 13 bp and 11 bp, respectively. The result was a broad bear flattening despite strong coupon-auction absorption, while firm August inflation data and rising real yields reinforced the bearish impulse. The assessment remains constrained by unavailable current policy-path, term-premium, safe-haven-flow, volatility and cash-market-liquidity measures.
September 4, 2026 · Inflation-compensation-led belly selloff with mixed curve shifts and persistent supply pressure
Treasury yields rose across the major maturities in the week ending September 4, with the five-year sector weakest. Two-, five-, ten- and thirty-year yields increased 3, 6, 5 and 2 basis points, respectively. The curve stayed positively sloped, but its weekly shifts differed: 2s10s steepened by about 2 basis points, while 5s30s and 10s30s flattened by about 4 and 3.
Higher inflation compensation and firm labor readings coincided with the selloff. August payrolls rose 162,000, unemployment remained 4.1%, and monthly wage growth increased to 0.3%. Real-yield observations run only through September 3, so they cannot provide an exact decomposition of September 4 nominal yields. Policy-path and term-premium estimates dated August 28 also cannot establish post-payroll repricing.
The five completed auctions were bills, not coupons. Demand was strongest at 52 weeks and firm at eight weeks, but notably weak at 26 weeks relative to each series' preceding 24 auctions. Indirect awards do not identify foreign purchases, and bill results do not establish demand for duration.
Upcoming three-, near-ten- and near-thirty-year auctions will test coupon absorption. The base case remains conditional: continued belly vulnerability and relative long-end resilience, not a uniform selloff. Geopolitical headlines offer possible transmission channels, not measured Treasury flows. This AI-assisted, administrator-authorized assessment is informational and subject to revision.
August 28, 2026 · Front-end-led twist flattening amid easing inflation compensation, elevated financing needs, and mixed auction demand
The Treasury market underwent a front-end-led twist flattening. Two- and five-year yields rose while 10- to 30-year yields declined, alongside lower long real yields and easing market-implied inflation compensation. The base case retains a positive curve and relative pressure in policy-sensitive maturities, but elevated borrowing needs, mixed coupon demand, and two-sided futures positioning limit conviction in an uninterrupted long-duration rally.
August 7, 2026 · Labor-led Treasury rally with easing inflation compensation, elevated supply pressure, and mixed bill demand
The Treasury market shifted to a broad rally after weaker payroll and wage evidence, with lower real yields and inflation compensation reinforcing the move. The central case is consolidation rather than a confirmed transition to materially easier policy: unemployment declined, initial claims remained low, and the supplied one-year forward-rate proxy was unchanged. Elevated borrowing needs and imminent 10- and 30-year auctions leave the long end comparatively event-sensitive despite unchanged nominal coupon-size guidance.
July 31, 2026 · Sharp curve steepening with a front-end rally, long-end selloff, rising volatility, and heavy supply backdrop
The Treasury market moved into a sharply steeper and more volatile regime: the 2-year yield fell 5 basis points while 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields rose 6, 10, and 11 basis points. The central case is continued volatile steep-curve trading, with relative front-end support but persistent long-end sensitivity to financing guidance and upcoming coupon supply. Available evidence does not establish that supply caused the long-end selloff.
July 24, 2026 · Real-yield-led selloff with positive bear-flattening, elevated supply pressure and rising long-duration volatility
The Treasury market ended the week in a real-yield-led selloff and modest positive bear-flattening. The base case is for volatile, supply-sensitive trading in which the front and intermediate sectors remain relatively vulnerable as a large July 27–29 auction calendar is absorbed. Mixed auction demand, elevated long-duration volatility, and firmer claims support that assessment, while unchanged supplied model forward-rate and term-premium measures limit attribution to a broad shift in expected policy or duration compensation.
