US Treasury market analysis and auction data
Review the current weekly assessment and official auction results.
Updated Sep 15, 2026
Latest report
Sep 11, 2026
Latest auction data
Sep 15, 2026
Supported series
7
Enabled maturity and security histories
Latest data: Sep 15, 2026
Latest published analysis · September 11, 2026
US Treasury Weekly Assessment — Week Ending 11 September 2026
Current assessment: Front-end-led bearish repricing with bear flattening, firm inflation pressure, and strong coupon-auction absorption
Assessment
The Treasury market repriced sharply lower in price, led by the front end: two-year, five-year, ten-year, twenty-year and thirty-year yields rose 26 bp, 24 bp, 18 bp, 13 bp and 11 bp, respectively. The result was a broad bear flattening despite strong coupon-auction absorption, while firm August inflation data and rising real yields reinforced the bearish impulse. The assessment remains constrained by unavailable current policy-path, term-premium, safe-haven-flow, volatility and cash-market-liquidity measures. Current Treasury Regime The current regime is a front-end-led bearish repricing with bear flattening, firm inflation pressure and strong coupon-auction absorption. At the 11 September close, the two-year yield was 4.63%, the five-year 4.78%, the ten-year 4.96%, the twenty-year 5.38% and the thirty-year 5.35%. Weekly yield increases were largest at two and five years, while the long end sold off less severely in relative terms. The curve remained positively sloped but flattened over the week. Closing 2s10s, 5s30s and 10s30s spreads were +33 bp, +57 bp and +39 bp, respectively. The supplied weekly maturity changes imply roughly 8 bp of 2s10s flattening, 13 bp of 5s30s flattening and 7 bp of 10s30s flattening. Executive Summary August inflation releases made the inflation backdrop more concrete: headline and core PPI each rose 0.4% month over month, with year-over-year readings of 5.4% and 5.1%; headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month and…
Central case
The base case is continued positive curve slope with front-end and belly yields remaining vulnerable to elevated inflation and restrictive-rate expectations, but without extrapolating another selloff of the same magnitude. The long end can continue outperforming in relative terms because near-ten-year and near-thirty-year supply was absorbed with strong coverage and exceptionally low dealer awards. That is a relative-value conclusion rather than an outright bullish-duration call: real yields increased across the curve and fiscal financing needs remain large. Mixed bill demand, two-sided futures positioning and the absence of current policy-path and term-premium estimates limit confidence in a uniform directional move.
Key findings
What changed
The prior week’s belly-led selloff became a substantially larger, front-end-led bearish repricing. Two-year yields rose 26 bp and five-year yields 24 bp, versus 18 bp at ten years, 13 bp at twenty years and 11 bp at thirty years. Coupon supply that had been an unresolved risk was absorbed strongly: the three-year auction posted 88th-percentile coverage, while the near-ten-year and near-thirty-year reopenings posted 100th- and 92nd-percentile coverage with exceptionally low dealer awards. Inflation pressure also became more concrete through August PPI and CPI releases, while five- and ten-year inflation compensation rose modestly. Real yields increased across five through thirty years in observations through September 10, replacing the previous week’s contained-real-yield backdrop.
Auction demand
Coupon-auction absorption was strong across coverage, bidder participation and dealer takedown. The $58 billion three-year sale had a 2.72 bid-to-cover ratio, the 88th percentile of 24 preceding exact-series auctions; direct awards were 26.77% versus an 18.60% average, indirect awards were moderately above average and dealer awards were below average. The $39 billion near-ten-year reopening was the strongest relative result: 2.71 coverage at the 100th percentile, 78.98% indirect awards versus a 63.30% average, and only 4.30% dealer awards versus 9.59%, a -2.16 dealer z-score. The $22 billion near-thirty-year reopening posted 2.61 coverage at the 92nd percentile, 79.33% indirect awards versus 58.28%, and only 2.20% dealer awards versus 10.98%, a -3.39 dealer z-score. Direct participation at the long-bond reopening was slightly below average, preventing a uniformly strong reading across every channel. Bills were mixed: the 13-week reopening had 21st-percentile coverage, below-average indirect awards and above-average dealer absorption; the 26-week, four-week and eight-week results showed stronger indirect participation and below-average dealer awards, although coverage was mostly around the middle of history. Indirect awards are not a pure foreign-demand measure, and auction allocations do not establish secondary-market flows or dealer inventories.
Curve drivers
The week was a broad bear flattening led by front-end and intermediate maturities. Weekly changes imply approximately 8 bp of 2s10s flattening, 13 bp of 5s30s flattening and 7 bp of 10s30s flattening. Inflation evidence and the absence of labour deterioration are consistent with greater policy sensitivity at two and five years, but current meeting-specific pricing is unavailable, so that causal channel is not directly measured. Rising real yields through September 10 show that real discount-rate pressure participated across the curve; modestly higher five- and ten-year inflation compensation indicates an additional inflation-compensation component. Strong long-duration auctions and very low dealer awards support relative long-end resilience, although they did not prevent an outright rise in long yields. Stale September 4 term-premium estimates cannot allocate the report-week move between expected short rates and term premium.
Key uncertainty: A sustained front-end rally accompanied by materially softer labour evidence, weaker inflation readings or a lower current policy-path measure would invalidate the expectation of continued front-end vulnerability.
Latest coupon auction results
Recent validated results, prioritising coupon securities where available.
Explore by security or maturity
2-Year Treasury Note
60 comparable auctions.
Latest Aug 25, 2026
3-Year Treasury Note
62 comparable auctions.
Latest Sep 8, 2026
5-Year Treasury Note
60 comparable auctions.
Latest Aug 26, 2026
7-Year Treasury Note
63 comparable auctions.
Latest Aug 27, 2026
10-Year Treasury Note
62 comparable auctions.
Latest Sep 9, 2026
20-Year Treasury Bond
63 comparable auctions.
Latest Sep 15, 2026
30-Year Treasury Bond
62 comparable auctions.
Latest Sep 10, 2026