CFTC positioning: analysis and validated data
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Updated Sep 8, 2026
CFTC position date
Sep 8, 2026
Validation status
Validated
Notable flips
4
Positioning extremes
5
Latest data: Sep 8, 2026
Latest published analysis · Sep 1, 2026
COT Weekly Editorial: Fragmented Positioning, Divergence Risks, and Crowding in Select Commodities (Position Date: 2026-09-01)
Current assessment: Mixed low conviction
Assessment
The CFTC positioning snapshot for September 1 shows a fragmented cross-asset picture, not a uniform risk-on or risk-off signal. Managed Money in wheat moved from net short 13,597 contracts to net long 14,904: a weekly increase of 28,501, combining 22,113 additional gross longs with 6,388 fewer gross shorts. Open interest increased by 27,029. The net position was the highest in the retained 13-, 52- and 156-report windows, not an established all-time record. Wheat prices rose 11.45% during the positioning week, then fell 6.28% after Tuesday through the September 4 market-data cutoff. Soybean meal showed a different divergence: Producer/Merchants deepened net shorts to 317,977 contracts while prices rose 6.78%. Commercial futures shorts may offset physical exposure; these figures alone do not establish speculative intent or forced-covering risk. Swiss franc dealers and gasoline Managed Money added longs. VIX Non-Reportables moved to net long 4,842 contracts, but the data do not identify hedging intent. Two-year Treasury Non-Reportables flipped net long through short covering; Ultra bond Non-Reportables increased an existing net long. Both changes coincided with falling weekly prices and contracting open interest. Gold Managed Money reduced gross longs, while Russell 2000 Leveraged Funds added shorts. The prior report's broad fragmentation thesis remains useful, but this week's selected contracts do not establish outcomes for every earlier highlighted position. COT is lagged, and continuous-futures prices…
Central case
Fragmentation persists: selective new long formation (wheat, RBOB, CHF) coexists with short covering in rates (US 2Y, Ultra bond) and long liquidation (gold); divergences remain in soybean meal, bitcoin, and small-caps.
Key findings
Key finding
Wheat Managed Money net flipped from -13,597 to +14,904 (w/w +28,501), driven by gross long adds (+22,113 w/w) and short reductions (-6,388 w/w); open interest expanded (+27,029) and price rose 11.45% during the week, then fell 6.28% after the position date.
Key finding
Soybean meal Producer/Merchants deepened the net short to -317,977 (w/w -55,888) via gross long cuts (-16,691) and gross short adds (+39,197) while price rose 6.78% and open interest expanded (+40,674): clear price-positioning divergence.
Key finding
Swiss franc Dealer Intermediaries increased net longs to 55,743 (w/w +7,042) primarily via gross long accumulation (+6,927 w/w) with strong open-interest expansion (+28,039).
Key finding
VIX Non-Reportables flipped net to +4,842 (w/w +5,258) as gross longs rose (+10,771) and gross shorts also rose (+5,513) with open interest expanding (+31,893).
Key uncertainty: A broad shift to uniform open-interest expansion with aligned price trends across most featured contracts, indicating a coherent trend-following regime rather than fragmentation.
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