Manually reviewed weekly analysis of US Treasury market and auction conditions, with source and cutoff disclosures.https://squawkdeck.com/feeds/us-treasury-reports.atom2026-08-29T12:28:06.442Zhttps://squawkdeck.com/feeds/us-treasury-reports.atom#treasury-2026-08-282026-08-29T12:28:06.442Z2026-08-29T12:28:06.442Z

The Treasury market underwent a front-end-led twist flattening. Two- and five-year yields rose while 10- to 30-year yields declined, alongside lower long real yields and easing market-implied inflation compensation. The base case retains a positive curve and relative pressure in policy-sensitive maturities, but elevated borrowing needs, mixed coupon demand, and two-sided futures positioning limit conviction in an uninterrupted long-duration rally. Attribution: Squawkdeck Treasury Weekly.

https://squawkdeck.com/feeds/us-treasury-reports.atom#treasury-2026-08-072026-08-14T12:54:24.407Z2026-08-14T12:54:24.407Z

The Treasury market shifted to a broad rally after weaker payroll and wage evidence, with lower real yields and inflation compensation reinforcing the move. The central case is consolidation rather than a confirmed transition to materially easier policy: unemployment declined, initial claims remained low, and the supplied one-year forward-rate proxy was unchanged. Elevated borrowing needs and imminent 10- and 30-year auctions leave the long end comparatively event-sensitive despite unchanged nominal coupon-size guidance. Attribution: Squawkdeck Treasury Weekly.

https://squawkdeck.com/feeds/us-treasury-reports.atom#treasury-2026-07-312026-08-02T08:10:04.703Z2026-08-02T08:10:04.703Z

The Treasury market moved into a sharply steeper and more volatile regime: the 2-year yield fell 5 basis points while 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields rose 6, 10, and 11 basis points. The central case is continued volatile steep-curve trading, with relative front-end support but persistent long-end sensitivity to financing guidance and upcoming coupon supply. Available evidence does not establish that supply caused the long-end selloff. Attribution: Squawkdeck Treasury Weekly.

https://squawkdeck.com/feeds/us-treasury-reports.atom#treasury-2026-07-242026-07-27T03:25:49.188Z2026-07-27T03:25:49.188Z

The Treasury market ended the week in a real-yield-led selloff and modest positive bear-flattening. The base case is for volatile, supply-sensitive trading in which the front and intermediate sectors remain relatively vulnerable as a large July 27–29 auction calendar is absorbed. Mixed auction demand, elevated long-duration volatility, and firmer claims support that assessment, while unchanged supplied model forward-rate and term-premium measures limit attribution to a broad shift in expected policy or duration compensation. Attribution: Squawkdeck Treasury Weekly.